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live commentary Post
EUR/USD loses ground as traders expect ECB to leave rates unchanged
By TradeRadius | Thu, 18 Jul 2024 10:54:45 UTC
EUR/USD depreciates in Thursday’s European session after rallying to a fresh four-month high near 1.0950 on Wednesday. The major currency pair is expected to remain quiet as investors shift to the sidelines ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting, which will be announced at 12:15 GMT.
The ECB is expected to leave its key rates unchanged this time as officials have been refraining from committing a pre-defined rate-cut path amid concerns over sticky inflation in the service sector, which could reverse the disinflation process. Therefore, investors will look for cues about when the ECB cuts interest rates further.
ECB President Christine Lagarde may not provide a specified rate-cut path and will emphasize the need for more data to gain confidence that the disinflation process will not stall before loosening policy further.
The ECB delivered its first rate cut in June after maintaining a restrictive interest rate framework for two years to tame hot inflationary pressures driven by coronavirus-pandemic-led stimulus. The reasoning behind unwinding the tight policy stance was the firm confidence of officials that risks to inflation and the economy are finely balanced and price pressures will return to the desired rate of 2%.
Currently, financial markets expect that the ECB will deliver two more rate cuts this year. The ECB is also expected to deliver its next rate-cut move in September.
Daily Digest Market Movers: EUR/USD turns sideways while US Dollar remains fragile
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD stays above 1.0900
EUR/USD trades sideways around 1.0950, inside Wednesday’s trading range ahead of the ECB policy meeting. The major currency pair remains firm after a breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle formation on a daily timeframe. A breakout of the above-mentioned chart pattern results in wider ticks and heavy volume.
The near-term outlook of the major currency pair is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0816 is sloping higher.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifts into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting a strong upside momentum.
The shared currency pair is expected to extend its upside towards March 8 high near 1.0980. On the contrary, a downside move below the round-level support of 1.0800 could weaken the pair.
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