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live commentary Post
EUR/USD dips below 1.0800 as Fed rate-cut prospects for September wane
By TradeRadius | Thu, 30 May 2024 09:51:27 UTC
EUR/USD extends its downside below the crucial support of 1.0800 in Thursday’s European session. The major currency pair faces severe pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid cautious market sentiment. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to a two-week high slightly above 105.00.
Investors rush to the US Dollar as they expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not be leaning towards interest rate cuts anytime soon. Fed policymakers have made it clear that they want to see inflation slow for months to gain confidence that price pressures will sustainably return to the desired rate of 2%.
Fed officials see more rate hikes as less likely but have kept the possibility on the table if progress in the disinflation process stalls. For fresh cues on the interest rate outlook, investors shift focus to the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for April, which will published on Friday and significantly influence speculation for Fed rate cuts in September. Annual and monthly core PCE inflation readings are estimated to have grown steadily by 2.8% and 0.3%, respectively.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD exhibits weakness with eyes on Eurozone/US inflation data
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD extends downside below 1.0800
EUR/USD sets a fresh swing low below the May 23 low around 1.0800, suggesting strong odds of a bearish reversal. The major currency pair fails to deliver a sharp upside move, generally observed after a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern breakout. A downside move back into the triangle indicates that the breakout was fake, and the pair is set to return to the upward-sloping border of the above-mentioned chart pattern.
The shared currency pair has dropped below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which trades around 1.0800, indicating that the near-term trend has turned bearish.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that the momentum, which was leaned toward the upside, has faded for now.
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