AUD/USD Price Analysis: Posts fresh five-day low near 0.6640

By TradeRadius | Wed, 22 May 2024 15:26:11 UTC

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  • AUD/USD refreshes five-day low near 0.6640 amid cautious market mood.
  • Investors await the FOMC minutes to project the next move in the US Dollar.
  • US bond yields rise amid uncertainty over Fed rate cuts in September.

The AUD/USD pair slumps to 0.6640 as the US Dollar exhibits firm footing in Wednesday’s New York session ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of May’s policy meeting, which will be published later in the day.

Fed officials’ views on the interest rate outlook are expected to have remained hawkish as United States consume price inflation remained stubbornly higher in the first three months of this year. The impact of the Fed’s minutes could be light on the US Dollar as April’s inflation declined, expectedly released after May’s meeting, which has indicated that the progress in the disinflationary process was temporarily stalled.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, advances to 104.80. More upside in the US Dollar looks likely as speculation for the Fed pivoting interest rate cuts has slightly eased.

The Australian Dollar fails to achieve a firm-footing despite the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) continued with expansionary policy stance to uplift China’s economic prospects. It is worth noting that Australia is the leading trading partner of China and historically higher monetary stimulus by world’s second largest economy improves the outlook of the Australian Dollar.

AUD/USD delivers a breakdown of the Rising Channel chart pattern formed on a four-hour timeframe. A breakdown of the above-mentioned pattern suggests an establishment of a bearish reversal. The near-term outlook of the Aussie asset is uncertain as it has stabilized below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.6666.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips below 40.00. Sustainability below 40.00 will shift momentum towards the downside.

More downside below May 15 at 0.6622 will expose the asset to May 14 low at 0.6580, followed by May 1 high at 0.6540.

On the flip side, a decisive move above May’s high at 0.6714 will drive the asset towards January 3 high at 0.6771 and the round-level resistance of 0.6800

 

 

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