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live commentary Post
Back to Live CommentaryUS Dollar extends rally as markets defy Fed’s view on interest-rate cuts
By TradeRadius | Fri, 22 Mar 2024 13:13:34 UTC
The US Dollar (USD) is basking in the glory of re-founded belief from traders. Whereas last year markets were challenging the US Federal Reserve (Fed) by pricing in more rate cuts than what the dot plot suggested, investors are now defying the US central bank in the other direction. Markets are expanding their positions in the Greenback with the idea that the Fed will not cut interest rates three times as it projected on Wednesday, but at most two, as economic data signals the US economy is still growing at a healthy pace.
On the economic data front, there is no top data expected to be released this Friday. However, markets will head into the weekend with three US Federal Reserve speakers lined up. First and foremost will be the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who will deliver a speech at around 13:00 GMT.
Daily digest market movers: Fed should stop pleasing the markets
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: pendulum swinging the other way
The US Dollar Index (DXY) must be thinking markets have gone crazy with their 180 degree shift after the Fed meeting. Markets were positioned for several and early interest-rate cuts back in December, but these aspirations have been tuned down quite a lot. The stand-off with the Fed could not be bigger: while Wednesday’s dot plots showed Fed officials are still expecting three rate cuts for this year, markets are pricing in only two cuts and very late in the year.
The DXY is heading for those highs of February, after a fresh high for March was posted this Friday morning. On the upside, 104.96 remains the first level in sight. Once above there, the peak at 104.97 from February comes into play ahead of the 105.00 region with 105.12 as the first resistance.
Support from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 103.71, the 100-day SMA at 103.52, and the 55-day SMA at 103.58 are getting a fresh chance to show their importance. The 103.00 big figure looks to remain unchallenged for now after the decline from the Fed meeting got turned around way before reaching it.
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