Pound Sterling edges higher on fastest growth in UK inflation in 17 months

• The Pound Sterling ticks up against its major peers as UK inflation grew at a faster-than-expected pace in June.
• Investors shift their focus to the UK labor market data for the three-months ending May.
• The US CPI report showed that Trump’s tariffs have started feeding into consumer prices.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) attracts bids against its major peers on Wednesday after the release of a hotter-than-projected United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that headline inflation rose to 3.6% on year, the highest level seen since January 2024. Economists expected the inflation data to have grown steadily by 3.4%. The core CPI – which excludes volatile items such as food, energy alcohol and tobacco – rose 3.7%, a faster pace than expectations and the prior reading of 3.5%. On month, the headline CPI grew by 0.3%, which was also faster than expectations and the former reading of 0.2%.

Meanwhile, inflation in the services sector, an indicator that is closely tracked by Bank of England (BoE) officials, rose steadily by 4.7%.

Signs of accelerating price pressures should encourage the BoE to argue in favor of maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance. However, the UK central bank might need to perform a delicate balancing act while discussing on interest rates in the August monetary policy meeting amid escalating price pressures and cooling labor market conditions.

Hotter-than-expected UK inflation data is expected to force markets to reassess bets supporting interest rate cuts by the BoE in the remainder of the year. Before the UK CPI data, traders were increasingly confident that the central bank will reduce interest rates in the policy meeting next month.

For fresh cues on the state of the UK labor market, investors await the job data for the three-months ending May, which will be released on Thursday.  

The increase of employers’ contribution to social security schemes by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has led to a slowdown in hiring. The latest survey from Recruitment and Employment Confederation trade body and accountants KPMG has signaled that the availability of individuals for job has increased significantly.