The US Dollar (USD) continues where it left off Friday evening at the US closing bell. The Greenback-favored sentiment this Monday is built on the once again disappointing numbers out of China. With Country Garden, an even bigger real estate developer than Evergrande, on the brink of collapse, Chinese loan data pointed to an 89% drop in distributed loans to companies and households. The Chinese credit crunch will further deteriorate its economic numbers and growth, threatening world economic growth in a spillover effect.
There are no important data points for Monday and the rest of the week. On Tuesday, US retail sales numbers will flavor the market, and on Wednesday the latest US Federal Reserve Minutes will be key data for further guidance and clues on where the US Dollar Index (DXY) might move later this week. Without pivotal data points, expect markets to be on autopilot with no real seismic shifts in current trends.
The US Dollar continues its rally from last week and opens the week with gains against most major peers. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is increasing, printing another new monthly high. Special attention from a technical point of view for EUR/USD where the US Dollar is about to break both the 55-day and the 100-day Simple Moving Average and could see US Dollar strength helping the DXY to break a substantial cap on the upside.
For the upside, 103 as a big figure will be challenged today. A touch further up, the 200-day SMA at 103.37 will be a difficult cap to cross above. As no real big events are scheduled for this week, and already the DXY has printed a new monthly high this Monday morning, it is questionable if this sentiment-driven move will push the DXY above the important 200-day SMA.
On the downside, several levels will be tested regarding support. The first candidate is the high of Friday at 102.90. If that fails, look for 102.38 with the 55-day SMA and the 100-day SMA nearby as double belts for underpinning the price action in the US Dollar Index. Should some event or headline trigger a break-even below those two moving averages, expect to see 102 challenged to catch the falling price action.
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