Pound Sterling holds strength on improved UK economic outlook

• The Pound Sterling holds recovery to near 1.2450 on an upbeat preliminary S&P Global/CIPS PMI report for April.
• BoE Haskel wants to see more slack in labor demand to gain confidence that inflation will sustainably return to the 2% target.
• Weak US PMI for April weighed on the US Dollar.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) turns sideways at around 1.2450 against the US Dollar (USD) in Wednesday’s European session after bouncing back strongly from a five-month low at around 1.2300 earlier in the week. The GBP/USD pair capitalizes on strong United Kingdom preliminary PMI numbers for April and a steep correction in the US Dollar.

On Tuesday, the S&P Global/CIPS reported that new business volumes increased across the private sector as a whole in April. “The rate of growth was the strongest since May 2023, but the expansion was centred on the service economy as manufacturers saw a moderate downturn in order books.”

Strong new business volumes usually indicate an upbeat consumer spending outlook, which could boost inflationary pressures and allow the Bank of England (BoE) to delay interest-rate cuts. The scenario bodes well for the Pound Sterling.

The USD came under pressure after S&P Global surprisingly reported weak preliminary US PMI numbers for April. The Manufacturing PMI dropped below the 50.0 threshold, signalling a contraction in the sector, and the Services PMI fell sharply to 50.9. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, attempted to establish firm footing near 105.70.

Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling eyes more upside, US Dollar strives for support

• The Pound Sterling aims to extend upside above the immediate resistance of 1.2450 against the US Dollar due to multiple tailwinds. The uncertainty about when the Bank of England could start reducing interest rates and strong preliminary PMI data for April reported by S&P Global/CIPS on Tuesday have boosted demand for the Pound Sterling.
• Traders remain split between June and August policy meetings as the start of the easing cycle. "It is between June and August, we are leaning slightly towards August on the basis that one of the key things the Bank is looking at is services inflation," said James Smith, economist at ING Financial Markets. "If services inflation is a little bit stickier, I think that tilts the balance a little bit further towards August over June, but it's a pretty close call to be honest."
• Also, distinct commentaries from BoE policymakers keep the timing of the BoE’s first interest rate cut uncertain. Last week, BoE deputy governor Dave Ramsden said inflation could decline faster than the pace projected by the central bank in its latest forecasts. Ramsden remains confident that inflation will return to the 2% target in May and will remain there for the next three years.
• On the contrary, BoE policymaker Jonathan Haskel is worried about inflation remaining persistent due to tight labor market conditions. Haskel said, "The labour market is central to the inflation aspect." He added that he wants to see the job market easing further to be confident about inflation returning to the 2% target, reported Reuters.
• On the economic data front, the S&P Global/CIPS reported stronger-than-expected preliminary PMI data for April on Tuesday. Surprisingly, the Services PMI jumped to 54.9 from the prior reading of 53.1. Investors had forecasted the Services PMI to drop slightly to 53.0. On the contrary, the preliminary Manufacturing PMI surprisingly dropped below the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction after being in the expansion territory since January. The factory PMI fell sharply to 48.7 from expectations and the prior reading of 50.3.

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling rises to 1.2450

The Pound Sterling recovers sharply from a five-month low of 1.2300 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair moved higher to 1.2450 on Tuesday and remains at around this level at the time of writing. The upside is limited near the supply zone, placed in a tight range of 1.2500-1.2520. The near-term outlook of the Cable remains weak as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2509 is declining.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds to 40.00, which could act as a ceiling ahead. The speculation for a bullish reversal could emerge if the momentum oscillator decisively breaks above 40.00.